Greece or Germany to Win?
Over the past couple of weeks there have been constant media updates on Greece, the Euro and financial markets. It’s likely this speculation will continue so I thought it worth clarifying key points.
The central issue remains that Greece, and other European countries, have an enormous level of debt. The difference between Greece and the others though is that Greece certainly cannot afford to repay those debts. As a result they are in constant need of bail outs from other member states, in particular Germany, to keep afloat.
However in return for the bailout the wealthier member states (such as Germany) are demanding Greece make ever-greater sacrifices in terms of spending cuts and austerity measures. This is an understandable request given Germany’s economic history and restraint over past years when their population has seen their own cutbacks, which meant they had to work longer, retire later and for less money to maintain their standard of living.
From Greece’s viewpoint they’re looking ahead and see little future aside from constant indebtedness and increasing cuts in lifestyle so are unwilling to meet all the demands made to receive the bailouts. An increasing proportion of their electorate would rather the country defaulted on their debts and effectively went bankrupt wiping the slate clean and starting afresh.
Going bankrupt is not really a solution as this would create chaos for everyone within the Euro, including Greece and Germany, but there are other solutions.
Ultimately if Greece is absolutely determined to not make the austerity cuts it is likely the other Euro countries and Germany will have to compromise.
This will either result in Greece being assisted in leaving the Euro by slowly writing down any debt and creating a New Drachma over a specified timescale, such as 12 months. Or Greece will carry out a controlled default on its debts and Germany will be forced to take on more liabilities (debts) to help keep the European economies going whether that is by increasing finance to the European Central Bank or by issuing Euro bonds.
In essence the powerhouse of the Euro is Germany and it is unlikely they won’t support or compromise with countries such as Greece if it comes to a stalemate. Ultimately Germany’s future is too closely pinned to the Euro so they need to ensure it continues as a valid currency.
As always what causes stock market fluctuations is uncertainty. Once the situation in Greece moves forward a little more and shows a clearer direction, it is likely stock markets will respond. Global equity markets in particular will probably benefit from being able to see a clearer road ahead.
Despite the media quoting terms such as ‘markets being in free-fall’, UK and global stock markets have shown reasonable resilience over the past couple of weeks. It is likely this will become further evident when they recover over time. The focus should remain on the medium to long term, not the short term fluctuations.
As always I would encourage anyone concerned over the situation to get in touch or feel free to contact us if you want to discuss any area of your financial planning.
And if you’re planning a holiday in the sun this year, Greece is still the outright winner!



